How do I build an aviation activity forecast?

Upload the airport's Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) data and select trend, market-share, or regression methods, and AvPlot produces operations and based-aircraft forecasts with the FAA TAF consistency check. The method follows AC 150/5070-6B and the August 2024 APP-400 memo.

What is the FAA TAF consistency check?

A forecast is considered consistent with the FAA Terminal Area Forecast if it differs by less than 10 percent at 5 years and less than 15 percent at 10 years; larger differences require justification per the APP-400 memo.

How is the critical aircraft determined in a forecast?

By identifying the most demanding aircraft, or family of aircraft with similar characteristics, that has at least 500 annual itinerant operations excluding touch-and-go, per FAA AC 150/5000-17.

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Aviation Activity Forecast

AC 150/5070-6B forecast builder — classification-tailored, TAF consistency check (APP-400 memo Aug 2024), critical aircraft (AC 150/5000-17) — beta

Classify the airport (runs first — tailors which components apply)Step 1

Airport (auto-pulls NPIAS)

Airport class (override)

Service level

Hub type (for §4 TAF-in-lieu)

Towered

Base year & base valuesStep 2

Base year

Forecast offsets (years out)

Base operations

Base based aircraft

Base enplanements

Project name

Activity baselines come from the TAF upload (5010 activity is no longer in NASR). Enter the base-year values your TAF/Aerospace forecast supports.

Scenarios (memo §3 — baseline / constrained / conceptual)Step 3

Baseline growth (%/yr)

Constrained growth (%/yr)

Conceptual growth (%/yr)

Constrained constraint (required if constrained set — memo §3b)

Conceptual note

TAF consistency check (memo §6a) include

Critical aircraft (AC 150/5000-17) include

Peak activity (AC 150/5070-6B ¶803.b) include

Fleet mix (based aircraft by category) include

Sponsor historical activity (your records — anchors the trend methods) include

Regression vs socioeconomic drivers (AC ¶704.d(1)) include

Market share / ratio analysis (AC ¶704.d(3)) include

Design-day flight schedule (AC 150/5060-5 — hub analysis) include

Optional activity elements (Fig 7-2 — T&G, IFR, helicopter, cargo shares) include

Streamlined path (memo §5 attestation) elect

Build forecastStep 5

Output

Preferred forecast (planner designation)

Rationale (required if designated)

Revalidate a previously approved forecast (memo §7) open